地价测算中的线性约束滚动模型

综合考虑影响地价的各种因素，结合目前土地价格评估中的各种理论方法，建立了描述土地价格变化的数学模型，并应用于宁波经济技术开发区新矸区域的地价评估工作中，取得较好的结果．     

A fuzzy voting scheme for hardware and software fault tolerant systems

Voting algorithms are used to arbitrate between the results of redundant modules in fault-tolerant systems. Inexact majority and weighted average voters have been used in many applications, although both have problems associated with them. Inexact majority voters require an application-specific 'voter threshold’ value to be specified, whereas weighted average voters are unable to produce a benign output when no agreement exists between the voter inputs. Neither voter type is able to cope with uncertainties associated with the voter inputs. This paper introduces a novel voting scheme based on fuzzy set theory. It softens the harsh behaviour of the inexact majority voter in the neighbourhood of the ‘voter threshold’, and handles uncertainty and some multiple error cases in the region defined by the fuzzy input variables. The voter assigns a fuzzy difference value to each pair of voter inputs based on their numerical distance. A set of fuzzy rules then determines a single fuzzy agreeability value for each individual input which describes how well it matches the other inputs. The agreeability of each voter input is then defuzzified to give a weighting value for that input which determines its contribution to the voter output. The weight values are then used in the weighted average algorithm for calculating the voter final output. The voter is experimentally evaluated from the point of view safety and availability, and compared with the inexact majority voter in a Triple Modular Redundant structured framework. The impact of changing some fuzzy variables on the performance of the voter is also investigated. We show that the fuzzy voter gives more correct outputs (higher availability) than the inexact majority voter with small and large errors, less incorrect outputs (higher safety) than the inexact majority voter in the presence of small errors, and less benign outputs than the inexact majority voter. The percentage of the benign outputs of the majority voter that are successfully handled by the fuzzy voter (resulting in correct outputs) is more than the percentage of those that are unsuccessfully resolved by the fuzzy voter (resulting in incorrect outputs). Our results suggest that the fuzzy voter is a viable alternative to a traditional inexact voter in cases where the benefits of a large increase in availability, and a considerable decrease in the number of benign outputs outweighs the cost of a small degradation in the safety performance of the system. The fuzzy voter is also a useful voting algorithm when arbitrating between the responses of dynamic channels of control systems incorporating uncertainties. This is the first reported use of a complete fuzzy voter in the context of fault tolerance.     

岩石节理粗糙面的分形几何特性与剪切强度关系的实验研究

自然形成的岩石节理面的表面形状具有分形特性，利用分形理论来描述岩石节理的粗糙特性，并确立与岩石节理面的剪切力学特性间的关系对于指导岩体工程设计，和管理具有重要一研究利用开发设计的三维激光测距仪在精确测定岩石节理面的表面形状４ 基础上，依据变量图法建立了 岩石节理面的     

Dynamics of a Fluid in a Rotating Horizontal Cylinder

The behavior of a low-viscosity fluid in a rotating horizontal circular cylinder is investigated experimentally. The stability of the centrifuged layer, the motion of the fluid with respect to the cavity, the excitation of inertial waves on the fluid surface, and the effect of the waves on the stability and flow structure are studied over a wide region of relative occupancy of the cavity. The results are analyzed from the viewpoint of vibrational mechanics in which the motion is generated by the oscillations of the fluid with respect to the cavity and the gravity force plays the role of the force oscillating in the cavity reference system.     

变直径串联喷嘴内流特性研究

喷嘴在分层注入过程中起到调节聚合物分子量和压力损失的作用,而多级喷嘴的结构,由于分子链的逐级剪切作用,可在保证注入粘度的同时,更大的减小压力的损失.在此基础上提出变直径多级喷嘴的几何结构,利用Fluent数值模拟软件,对单级喷嘴、等直径多级喷嘴进行数值模拟,分析不同结构喷嘴对三元复合溶液速度、压力、湍动能以及平均应变速率的影响,结果表明随着流量的增大,三种结构喷嘴的压力损失和平均应变速率均增大,合理的变直径串联喷嘴可以达到与等直径串联喷嘴相同的注入效果,同时尺寸较小,方便工程应用.     

股票市场的长记忆及其动态结构

本文提出了结合平均小波系数法和自回归原始自助法的稳健长记忆检验,蒙特卡罗模拟显示该方法对于短期记忆过程具有稳定性。基于该方法对2005年4月8日至2015年6月30日的中国、美国、香港和德国股市进行了实证分析。全局检验结果表明仅中国的股票市场存在显著的长记忆,并且风险因素无法对长记忆解释,而美国、德国和香港的股市不存在长记忆。基于递增窗口的动态Hurst指数分析显示,金融危机时期4个股市都存在显著的长记忆。2010年后,除中国股市外,其余三个股市几乎不存在长记忆现象。     

Stochastic optimization of an urban rail timetable under time‐dependent and uncertain demand

Urban rail planning is extremely complex, mainly because it is a decision problem under different uncertainties. In practice, travel demand is generally uncertain, and therefore, the timetabling decisions must be based on accurate estimation. This research addresses the optimization of train timetable at public transit terminals of an urban rail in a stochastic setting. To cope with stochastic fluctuation of arrival rates, a two‐stage stochastic programming model is developed. The objective is to construct a daily train schedule that minimizes the expected waiting time of passengers. Due to the high computational cost of evaluating the expected value objective, the sample average approximation method is applied. The method provided statistical estimations of the optimality gap as well as lower and upper bounds and the associated confidence intervals. Numerical experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the solution method.     

Stability in terms of two measures of solutions to stochastic partial differential delay equations with switching

In this paper, the problem of stability in terms of two measures is considered for a class of stochastic partial differential delay equations with switching. Sufficient conditions for stability in terms of two measures are obtained based on the technique of constructing a proper approximating strong solution system and conducting a limiting type of argument to pass on stability of strong solutions to mild ones. In particular, the stochastic stability under the fixed‐index sequence monotonicity condition and under the average dwell‐time switching are considered.